Saltykov A B, Khitrov N K
Sechenov Medical Academy, Moscow.
Zh Vyssh Nerv Deiat Im I P Pavlova. 2001 Mar-Apr;51(2):279-87.
The role of probability forecasting in the purposive behavior under conditions of subjective uncertainty is considered in terms of the theory of functional systems. Participation of the probability forecasting in the afferent synthesis, goal formation, formation of the acceptor of action result and action program, and, finally, in the action program actualization is substantiated. The model of behavior under conditions of subjective uncertainty is advanced. It includes all the classical elements of the model of behavioral act developed by P.K. Anokhin. In order to take into account the probability aspects of behavior, the role of probability forecasting is emphasized at every stage of the system functioning. In addition to the classical elements, two novel components are introduced. These are the "memory buffer" (results of searching reactions) and the apparatus of probability decisions about changes in the action program. By the memory buffer an apparatus is meant, which gathers and stores the information about the results of many behavioral acts performed during the actualization of the action program. This information is used in the process of making a probability decision as whether to alter or not the action program after each specific behavioral act. Such an approach integrates the probability forecasting and the theory of functional systems. The theory becomes universal, i.e., applicable not only to deterministic but also to probabilistic environments.
从功能系统理论的角度考虑概率预测在主观不确定性条件下的目的性行为中的作用。证实了概率预测在传入综合、目标形成、行动结果接受器和行动程序的形成中，以及最终在行动程序的实现中的参与。提出了主观不确定性条件下的行为模型。它包括由P.K.阿诺欣提出的行为动作模型的所有经典要素。为了考虑行为的概率方面，在系统运行的每个阶段都强调概率预测的作用。除了经典要素外，还引入了两个新的组成部分。这些是“记忆缓冲区”（搜索反应的结果）和关于行动程序变化的概率决策装置。记忆缓冲区是指一种装置，它收集并存储在行动程序实现过程中执行的许多行为动作的结果信息。该信息用于在每一个特定行为动作之后做出是否改变行动程序的概率决策过程中。这种方法将概率预测和功能系统理论结合起来。该理论变得具有普遍性，即不仅适用于确定性环境，也适用于概率性环境。
