Riley J C
Indiana University, Bloomington.
Soc Hist Med. 1999 Apr;12(1):101-24. doi: 10.1093/shm/12.1.101.
Scholars sometimes claim that mortality and morbibity move papallel to one another over time. Using case studies from nineteenth-century England and Wales, this essay plots actual relationships in historical populations and explores why parallelism should not be expected. The implication of finding that mortality and morbidity chart independent courses is that they are either shaped by different factors or by the same factors operating in different ways. Hence morbidity should not be expected to be controlled by policies formulated to control mortality.
学者们有时声称,随着时间的推移,死亡率和发病率呈平行变化。本文通过对19世纪英格兰和威尔士的案例研究,描绘了历史人口中的实际关系,并探讨了为何不应预期会出现平行关系。发现死亡率和发病率呈现独立变化趋势的意义在于,它们要么是由不同因素塑造,要么是由以不同方式起作用的相同因素塑造。因此,不应期望发病率能通过为控制死亡率而制定的政策得到控制。