Rohrbasser J M
Rev Synth. 1997(4):385-417.
The government of Providence builds the order which pastor Süssmilch sees in the demographic events and especially the order of mortality. God governs the length of human life and assigns to each person a just balance between fear of death and expectation of life. This authorizes Süssmilch to clarify the notions of probable life and life expectancy with the design to treat of their main application in the field of political arithmetic, that is the computations of Government loans under the form of annuities on lives. So he treats of an important question which concerns the history of actuarial calculation as well as the history of probability, of statistics and demography. We cannot forget also the political and philosophical points of view which the pastor underlines vividly: what sort of contract joins the creature and his God? This study of the contingent but optimal regularities which Providence makes in the world builds an important contribution to the physico-theological current.
普罗维登斯政府构建了牧师聚斯米尔希在人口事件中所看到的秩序,尤其是死亡秩序。上帝掌控着人类生命的长度,并在对死亡的恐惧和对生命的期望之间为每个人赋予公正的平衡。这使得聚斯米尔希能够阐明预期寿命和平均余命的概念,旨在论述它们在政治算术领域的主要应用,即以人寿年金形式计算政府贷款。因此,他探讨了一个既关乎精算计算史又关乎概率史、统计学和人口统计学的重要问题。我们也不能忘记牧师鲜明强调的政治和哲学观点:造物与他的上帝缔结了何种契约?对普罗维登斯在世间创造的偶然但最优规律的这项研究,为自然神论思潮做出了重要贡献。