Rojstaczer S, Sterling S M, Moore N J
Center for Hydrologic Science and Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA.
Science. 2001 Dec 21;294(5551):2549-52. doi: 10.1126/science.1064375.
Previous global estimates of the human impact on terrestrial photosynthesis products depended heavily on extrapolation from plot-scale measurements. Here, we estimated this impact with the use of recent data, many of which were collected at global and continental scales. Monte Carlo techniques that incorporate known and estimated error in our parameters provided estimates of uncertainty. We estimate that humans appropriate 10 to 55% of terrestrial photosynthesis products. This broad range reflects uncertainty in key parameters and makes it difficult to ascertain whether we are approaching crisis levels in our use of the planet's resources. Improved estimates will require high-resolution global measures within agricultural lands and tropical forests.
此前全球对人类活动对陆地光合作用产物影响的估算,在很大程度上依赖于从样地尺度测量数据进行的外推。在此,我们利用近期数据对这种影响进行了估算,其中许多数据是在全球和大陆尺度上收集的。纳入了参数中已知和估算误差的蒙特卡罗技术提供了不确定性的估计。我们估计人类占用了陆地光合作用产物的10%至55%。这个宽泛的范围反映了关键参数的不确定性,使得难以确定我们在地球资源利用方面是否正接近危机水平。要得到更精确的估计,需要对农田和热带森林进行高分辨率的全球测量。