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基于阈值模型的挪威奶牛临床型乳腺炎易感性的贝叶斯分析:数据抽样方法和模型设定的影响

Bayesian analysis of liability of clinical mastitis in Norwegian cattle with a threshold model: effects of data sampling method and model specification.

作者信息

Heringstad B, Rekaya R, Gianola D, Klemetsdal G, Weigel K A

机构信息

Department of Animal Science, Agricultural University of Norway, As.

出版信息

J Dairy Sci. 2001 Nov;84(11):2337-46. doi: 10.3168/jds.S0022-0302(01)74682-6.

Abstract

First-lactation records of Norwegian Cattle were used to infer heritability of liability to clinical mastitis with a threshold sire model. Mastitis was defined as a binary response (presence or absence) in a defined period of first lactation (opportunity period). Length of opportunity period (from 30 d before calving up to 120 or 300 d of lactation) had less effect on heritability estimates than data sampling methods (include or exclude records of cows culled before the end of the opportunity period) whereas sire ranking was more affected by the former. Including all cows, whether culled before the end of the opportunity period or not, gave a sharper and more symmetric posterior distribution of heritability of liability to clinical mastitis. When we analyzed data for all cows, model specification had a small effect on heritability estimates, while sire ranking was affected markedly. Posterior means of heritability range from 0.058 to 0.074. A model regressing on the length of the opportunity period for culled cows without mastitis, was shown favorable for the two opportunity periods using Bayes factors and the deviance information criterion for model comparison. This model, in which liability of mastitis depends on time to culling, may allow utilizing information from all first lactations in genetic evaluation, irrespectively of duration and culling outcome.

摘要

利用挪威奶牛的头胎记录,通过阈值 sire 模型推断临床型乳腺炎易感性的遗传力。乳腺炎被定义为头胎泌乳特定时期(机遇期)内的二元反应(存在或不存在)。机遇期的时长(从产犊前 30 天到泌乳 120 天或 300 天)对遗传力估计的影响小于数据抽样方法(包括或排除在机遇期结束前被淘汰奶牛的记录),而 sire 排名受前者影响更大。纳入所有奶牛,无论其是否在机遇期结束前被淘汰,会使临床型乳腺炎易感性遗传力的后验分布更清晰且更对称。当我们分析所有奶牛的数据时,模型设定对遗传力估计的影响较小,而 sire 排名受到显著影响。遗传力的后验均值范围为 0.058 至 0.074。对于未患乳腺炎的淘汰奶牛,基于机遇期时长进行回归的模型,在使用贝叶斯因子和偏差信息准则进行模型比较时,对两个机遇期均显示出优势。在该模型中,乳腺炎易感性取决于淘汰时间,这可能允许在遗传评估中利用所有头胎泌乳的信息,而不论泌乳期时长和淘汰结果如何。

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