Gemke Reinoud J, van Vught JohannesA
Department of Pediatric Intensive Care, Free University Medical Center, P.O. Box 7057, 1007 MB Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Intensive Care Med. 2002 Feb;28(2):204-7. doi: 10.1007/s00134-001-1185-2. Epub 2002 Jan 12.
To compare the performance of two different clinical scoring systems that were developed to assess mortality probability in pediatric intensive care.
Prospective cohort study in a multidisciplinary tertiary pediatric intensive care unit. The Pediatric Risk of Mortality score (PRISM III) and the Pediatric Index of Mortality (PIM) were collected for each patient. Standardized mortality rate (SMR), discrimination and calibration of both scoring systems were compared by goodness-of-fit tests and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.
Data from 303 patients were collected over a 9-month period. Twenty patients (6.6%) died in the PICU. Expected mortality based on PRISM III (12 h) was 6.96% (SMR 0.95; 95% CI 0.68-1.23), based on PRISM III (24 h) was 6.95% (SMR 0.95; 0.67-1.22) and based on PIM was 7.5% (SMR 0.88; 0.55-1.20). Calibration by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed for PRISM III (12 h) chi(2) (8) =10.8, p=0.21; for PRISM III (24 h) chi(2) (8) =13.3, p=0.21 and for the PIM score chi(2) (8) = 4.92, p=0.77. Discriminatory performance assessed by ROC curves showed an area under the curve of 0.78 (95% CI 0.67-0.89) for the PRISM III score both after 12 and 24 h and 0.74 (0.63-0.85) for the PIM score.
PRISM III and PIM scores are both adequate indicators of mortality probability for heterogeneous patient groups in pediatric intensive care. Possibly in larger studies (equivalence trial) a significant and relevant difference between these scores would be demonstrated.
比较两种不同的临床评分系统评估儿科重症监护中死亡概率的性能。
在一家多学科三级儿科重症监护病房进行前瞻性队列研究。收集每位患者的儿科死亡风险评分(PRISM III)和儿科死亡率指数(PIM)。通过拟合优度检验和受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线比较两种评分系统的标准化死亡率(SMR)、区分度和校准度。
在9个月期间收集了303例患者的数据。20例患者(6.6%)在儿科重症监护病房死亡。基于PRISM III(12小时)的预期死亡率为6.96%(标准化死亡率0.95;95%可信区间0.68 - 1.23),基于PRISM III(24小时)的预期死亡率为6.95%(标准化死亡率0.95;0.67 - 1.22),基于PIM的预期死亡率为7.5%(标准化死亡率0.88;0.55 - 1.20)。通过Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验进行校准,结果显示PRISM III(12小时)的卡方值(8)=10.8,p = 0.21;PRISM III(24小时)的卡方值(8)=13.3,p = 0.21;PIM评分的卡方值(8)= 4.92,p = 0.77。通过ROC曲线评估的区分性能显示,PRISM III评分在12小时和24小时后的曲线下面积为0.78(95%可信区间0.67 - 0.89),PIM评分的曲线下面积为0.74(0.63 - 0.85)。
PRISM III和PIM评分都是儿科重症监护中异质性患者群体死亡概率的适当指标。在更大规模的研究(等效性试验)中,可能会证明这些评分之间存在显著且相关的差异。