Holland R, Harvey I, Shepstone L
School of Medicine, Health Policy & Practice, University of East Anglia, Norwich.
J Public Health Med. 2002 Mar;24(1):58-62. doi: 10.1093/pubmed/24.1.58.
The examination for Part II of the Membership of the Faculty of Public Health Medicine (MFPHM) has been held since 1974. Candidates and examiners have hypothesized a number of factors as likely to increase the chances of success in the exam. This study formally investigates factors which may predict a candidate's success at their first attempt.
Routinely available data on candidates sitting the exam from March 1996 to June 1999 were examined initially by univariate analysis. A logistic regression model was then constructed entering all variables identified as statistically significant as well as the following variables initially thought to be relevant (a priori hypotheses): age, sex, university versus NHS training location; splitting competencies evenly across two reports; and training within North Thames deanery.
Four factors were identified as statistically significant within the logistic regression model. These were: possession of either MRCP (odds ratio (OR) of failure = 0.33, p = 0.003) or MRCGP (OR = 0.45, p = 0.016), success at UK Part I at first attempt (OR = 0.42, p = 0.014), and North Thames training (OR = 0.44, p = 0.048).
Possession of MRCP or MRCGP, or passing UK Part I MFPHM are factors not normally open to change by candidates once they begin working towards Part II MFPHM. Training in North Thames was also identified as an independent predictor of success. It would seem advisable to investigate in further detail whether candidate selection (not adjusted for in the model) or aspects of the North Thames training programme are responsible for this observed phenomenon.
自1974年起便开始举行公共卫生医学系会员资格考试第二部分（MFPHM）。考生和考官们推测了一些可能增加考试成功几率的因素。本研究正式调查了可能预测考生首次考试成功的因素。
最初通过单变量分析检查了1996年3月至1999年6月参加考试的考生的常规可用数据。然后构建了一个逻辑回归模型，纳入所有被确定为具有统计学显著性的变量以及最初认为相关的以下变量（先验假设）：年龄、性别、大学培训地点与国民健康服务体系（NHS）培训地点；在两份报告中平均分配能力；以及在北泰晤士地区培训。
在逻辑回归模型中确定了四个具有统计学显著性的因素。这些因素分别是：拥有皇家内科医师学会会员资格（MRCP）（失败的比值比（OR）=0.33，p = 0.003）或皇家全科医师学会会员资格（MRCGP）（OR = 0.45，p = 0.016）、首次参加英国第一部分考试成功（OR = 0.42，p = 0.014）以及在北泰晤士地区培训（OR = 0.44，p = 0.048）。
拥有MRCP或MRCGP，或者通过英国MFPHM第一部分考试，这些因素一旦考生开始准备MFPHM第二部分考试，通常就无法由考生改变。在北泰晤士地区培训也被确定为成功的一个独立预测因素。进一步详细调查是考生选拔（模型中未进行调整）还是北泰晤士地区培训计划的某些方面导致了这一观察到的现象，似乎是可取的。
