Beech Anthony, Friendship Caroline, Erikson Matt, Hanson R Karl
School of Psychology, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, United Kingdom.
Sex Abuse. 2002 Apr;14(2):155-67; discussion 195-7. doi: 10.1177/107906320201400206.
This study examined how well historical information and psychometric data predicted sexual recidivism in a sample of child abusers about to undergo group-based cognitive behavioral treatment in the community. Static, historical factors, as measured by the Static-99 (R. K. Hanson & D. Thornton, 2000), significantly predicted recidivism over the 6-year follow-up period. High-risk men were over 5 times more likely to be reconvicted for a sexual offence compared to low-risk men. Adding psychometric measures of dynamic risk (e.g., pro-offending attitudes, socio-affective problems) significantly increased the accuracy of risk prediction beyond the level achieved by the actuarial assessment of static factors. This result indicates the importance of considering dynamic risk factors in any comprehensive risk protocol.
本研究考察了历史信息和心理测量数据对即将在社区接受基于团体的认知行为治疗的儿童虐待者样本中再次性犯罪的预测效果。通过静态-99量表（R.K.汉森和D.桑顿，2000年）测量的静态历史因素，在6年随访期内对再次犯罪有显著预测作用。与低风险男性相比，高风险男性因性犯罪再次被定罪的可能性高出5倍多。加入动态风险的心理测量指标（如犯罪倾向态度、社会情感问题）后，风险预测的准确性显著提高，超过了仅对静态因素进行精算评估所达到的水平。这一结果表明在任何全面的风险评估方案中考虑动态风险因素的重要性。
