Nielsen Randi, Gyrd-Hansen Dorte
Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark.
Health Econ. 2002 Jun;11(4):285-99. doi: 10.1002/hec.652.
Cystic fibrosis (CF) is the most common life-shortening genetically transmitted disease in Denmark with a birth prevalence of 1 in 4700, resulting in 12-15 new cases of cystic fibroses annually. The aim of this study is to disclose the societal resource implications of introducing a population wide prenatal screening programme for cystic fibrosis in Denmark. The present analysis is limited to the monetary consequences of introducing a screening programme, where costs of screening are compared to the potential benefits measured in cost savings involved if births of CF patients are avoided. Screening costs in a Danish setting were estimated at DKK 2 771 262 ( pound sterlings 231 438) per aborted affected fetus in the first screening round, stabilising at DKK 1 864 594 ( pound sterlings 155 383) per aborted affected fetus at subsequent screening rounds. Comparing this figure with the estimated benefits of avoiding a CF case (DKK 2.1-4.4 million; pound sterlings 175 000-366 667) suggests that introducing a screening programme for cystic fibrosis will be net cost saving irrespective of the perspective of the analysis, assumptions on replacement children and method of estimating long-term production gains/losses.
囊性纤维化（CF）是丹麦最常见的可缩短寿命的遗传性疾病，出生患病率为1/4700，每年导致12 - 15例新的囊性纤维化病例。本研究的目的是揭示在丹麦推行针对囊性纤维化的全人群产前筛查计划对社会资源的影响。目前的分析仅限于推行筛查计划的货币后果，即将筛查成本与避免囊性纤维化患者出生所带来的潜在效益（以节省的成本衡量）进行比较。丹麦首次筛查轮次中，每例流产的患病胎儿的筛查成本估计为2771262丹麦克朗（231438英镑），后续筛查轮次中每例流产的患病胎儿的筛查成本稳定在1864594丹麦克朗（155383英镑）。将这一数字与避免一例囊性纤维化病例的估计效益（210万 - 440万丹麦克朗；17.5万 - 36.6667万英镑）相比较表明，无论从分析角度、对替代儿童的假设以及估计长期生产收益/损失的方法如何，推行囊性纤维化筛查计划都将节省净成本。
