Grossmann Erik M, Longo Walter E, Virgo Katherine S, Johnson Frank E, Oprian Charles A, Henderson William, Daley Jennifer, Khuri Shukri F
Department of Surgery, Saint Louis University School of Medicine and the St Louis VA Medical Center, MO 63110-0250, USA.
Surgery. 2002 May;131(5):484-90. doi: 10.1067/msy.2002.123806.
The purpose of this study was to define risk factors that predict 30-day morbidity and mortality after gastrectomy for cancer in Veterans Affairs (VA) Medical Centers.
The VA National Surgical Quality Improvement Program prospectively collected data on 708 patients undergoing gastrectomy for cancer in 123 participating VA medical centers from 1991 to 1998. Independent variables included 68 preoperative patient characteristics and 12 intraoperative variables; the dependent variables were 21 defined adverse outcomes and death. Predictive models for 30-day morbidity and mortality were constructed by using stepwise logistic regression analysis.
The 30-day morbidity rate was 33.3% (236 of 708). The overall 30-day mortality rate was 7.6% (54 of 708). Significant positive predictors of morbidity (P <.05) included current pneumonia, American Society of Anesthesiologists class IV (threat to life), partially dependent functional status, dyspnea on minimal exertion, preoperative transfusion, extended operative time, and increasing age. Significant positive predictors of mortality (P <.05) included do not resuscitate status, prior stroke, intraoperative transfusion, preoperative weight loss, preoperative transfusion, and elevated preoperative alkaline phosphatase level.
Risk factors predicting morbidity and mortality rates at VA hospitals after gastrectomy for gastric cancer are reported by using a prospectively collected, multi-institutional database. Assigning relative weights to factors associated with adverse outcomes may help improve patient care.
本研究旨在确定可预测退伍军人事务部(VA)医疗中心胃癌胃切除术后30天发病率和死亡率的风险因素。
VA国家外科质量改进计划前瞻性收集了1991年至1998年期间123家参与研究的VA医疗中心708例接受胃癌胃切除术患者的数据。自变量包括68项术前患者特征和12项术中变量;因变量为21项定义的不良结局和死亡情况。采用逐步逻辑回归分析构建30天发病率和死亡率的预测模型。
30天发病率为33.3%(708例中的236例)。30天总死亡率为7.6%(708例中的54例)。发病率的显著阳性预测因素(P<.05)包括当前肺炎、美国麻醉医师协会IV级(对生命有威胁)、部分依赖的功能状态、轻微活动即出现呼吸困难、术前输血、手术时间延长和年龄增加。死亡率的显著阳性预测因素(P<.05)包括不进行心肺复苏状态、既往中风、术中输血、术前体重减轻、术前输血和术前碱性磷酸酶水平升高。
通过使用前瞻性收集的多机构数据库,报告了VA医院胃癌胃切除术后发病率和死亡率的风险因素。对与不良结局相关的因素赋予相对权重可能有助于改善患者护理。