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河流水质积分动力学模型的敏感性分析与自动校准

Sensitivity analysis and auto-calibration of an integral dynamic model for river water quality.

作者信息

van Griensven A, Francos A, Bauwens W

机构信息

Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium.

出版信息

Water Sci Technol. 2002;45(9):325-32.

PMID:12079121
Abstract

ESWAT--Extended Soil and Water Assessment Tool--was developed to allow for an integral modelling of the water quantity and quality processes in river basins. ESWAT is a physically based, semi-distributed model, with a moderate-to-large number of parameters and input and output variables (depending on the desegregation scheme). An auto-calibration procedure was implemented for the optimisation of the process parameters. The procedure is based on a new approach for multi-objective calibration and incorporates the algorithms of the Shuffled Complex Evolution Method. The optimisation uses a global optimisation criterion, whereby several output variables can be taken into account simultaneously. A statistical method enables the aggregation of the objective functions for individual variables, hereby avoiding the weighting problem. To select the important parameters for the optimisation, a sensitivity analysis precedes the calibration. The latter analysis is based on the One-factor-At-a-Time (OAT) design approach. The sensitivity analysis and the calibration procedure are applied to the river Dender in Belgium. The river is characterised by high pollution loads and long residence times in summer periods.

摘要

扩展土壤与水评估工具(ESWAT)的开发旨在实现流域水量和水质过程的综合建模。ESWAT是一个基于物理的半分布式模型,具有数量适中到大量的参数以及输入和输出变量(取决于分解方案)。为优化过程参数实施了自动校准程序。该程序基于一种新的多目标校准方法,并纳入了洗牌复合进化方法的算法。优化使用全局优化标准,从而可以同时考虑多个输出变量。一种统计方法能够汇总各个变量的目标函数,从而避免了加权问题。为选择优化的重要参数,在校准之前进行了敏感性分析。后一项分析基于一次一个因素(OAT)设计方法。敏感性分析和校准程序应用于比利时的登德河。该河流的特点是夏季污染负荷高且停留时间长。

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