Mineau Pierre
National Wildlife Research Centre-Canadian Wildlife Service, Hull, Quebec.
Environ Toxicol Chem. 2002 Jul;21(7):1497-506.
The outcome of avian field studies was examined to model the likelihood of mortality. The data were divided into clusters reflecting the type of pesticide application and bird guilds present on site. Logistic regression was used to model the probability of a bird kill. Four independent variables were tested for their explanatory power: a variable reflecting acute oral toxicity and application rate; a variable reflecting the relative oral to dermal toxicity of the pesticides; Henry's law constant; and a variable reflecting possible avoidance of contaminated food items, the hazard factor (HF). All variables except for HF significantly improved model prediction. The relative dermal to oral toxicity, especially, was shown to have a major influence on field outcome and clearly must be incorporated into future avian risk assessments. The probability of avian mortality could be calculated from a number of current pesticide applications and the conclusion was made that avian mortality occurs regularly and frequently in agricultural fields.
对鸟类野外研究的结果进行了检查，以模拟死亡的可能性。数据被分成若干组，反映现场农药施用的类型和鸟类群落。使用逻辑回归来模拟鸟类死亡的概率。对四个自变量的解释力进行了测试：一个反映急性经口毒性和施用率的变量；一个反映农药经口与经皮毒性相对关系的变量；亨利定律常数；以及一个反映对受污染食物可能的回避情况的变量，即危害因子（HF）。除HF外，所有变量都显著改善了模型预测。尤其是经皮与经口毒性的相对关系，已表明对野外结果有重大影响，显然必须纳入未来的鸟类风险评估中。可以根据当前的一些农药施用情况计算鸟类死亡的概率，得出的结论是，鸟类死亡在农田中经常且频繁发生。
