Slater Paul E, Anis Emilia, Leventhal Alex
Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Health, Jerusalem, Israel.
Isr Med Assoc J. 2002 Jul;4(7):507-12.
Because of its high case-fatality rate, its very high transmission potential, and the worldwide shortage of effective vaccine, smallpox tops international lists of over a dozen possible bioterror and biologic warfare agents. In a scenario involving aerosol variola virus release, tens to hundreds of first-generation cases would ensue, as would hundreds to thousands of subsequent cases resulting from person-to-person transmission. A smallpox outbreak in Israel must not be regarded as a doomsday event: the methods of smallpox outbreak control are known and will be implemented. The rapidity with which organized outbreak control measures are competently executed will determine how many generations of cases occur before the outbreak is brought under control. Planning, vaccine stockpiling, laboratory expansion, professional training and public education, all carried out well in advance of an epidemic, will minimize the number of casualties. The reinstitution of routine smallpox vaccination in Israel, as in other countries, must be given serious consideration, since it has the potential for eliminating the threat of smallpox as a bioterror agent.
由于天花的高病死率、极高的传播潜力以及全球有效疫苗的短缺,天花在十几种可能的生物恐怖和生物战剂国际清单上位居榜首。在涉及气溶胶传播天花病毒的情况下,将出现数十至数百例第一代病例,随后还会有数百至数千例通过人际传播产生的病例。以色列的天花疫情绝不应被视为世界末日事件:天花疫情控制方法是已知的,并且将会得到实施。有组织的疫情控制措施得到有效执行的速度将决定在疫情得到控制之前会出现几代病例。在疫情发生之前就提前做好规划、储备疫苗、扩大实验室规模、进行专业培训和开展公众教育,将使伤亡人数降至最低。与其他国家一样,以色列必须认真考虑重新恢复常规天花疫苗接种,因为这有可能消除天花作为生物恐怖剂的威胁。