Monnier A
Popul. 1990;2:127-40.
The author examines "the impact which various pro-natalist measures adopted since 1976 in the German Democratic Republic have had on women's birth cohorts....A period analysis of subsequent birth and fertility trends would seem to indicate that this policy was remarkably effective. The annual number of births...started to rise rapidly in 1976 and reached a peak of 245,132 births in 1980, an increase of 37%....Furthermore, comparison with the period fertility trend in the Federal Republic of Germany...shows that the gap between the two Germanys has widened since 1977...whereas the trends had been very similar in the two countries before that date....However...other factors should be taken into account: in particular, the number of marriages has fallen steeply during the last few years, and at the same time the number of births outside marriage has soared. These changes, which were in all probability prompted by the adoption of social legislation which favoured single mothers (or fathers)...must be taken into account when assessing the consequences of the new family policy."
作者研究了“自1976年以来德意志民主共和国采取的各种鼓励生育措施对女性出生队列的影响……对随后的出生和生育趋势进行的时期分析似乎表明,这项政策非常有效。出生的年数量……在1976年开始迅速上升,并在1980年达到245,132例出生的峰值,增长了37%……此外,与德意志联邦共和国同期的生育趋势进行比较……表明自1977年以来两德之间的差距已经扩大……而在此之前两国的趋势非常相似……然而……还应考虑其他因素:特别是,近年来结婚数量急剧下降,与此同时非婚生育数量飙升。这些变化很可能是由于有利于单身母亲(或父亲)的社会立法的通过而引发的……在评估新家庭政策的后果时必须予以考虑。”