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在人类进化过程中,人口生育率与预期寿命所达到的水平之间的函数关系。

Fertility of populations as a function of the attained level of life expectancy in the course of human evolution.

作者信息

Langner G

出版信息

Hist Soz Forsch. 1996;21(4):24-55.

Abstract

"¿Aging societies' with increasing life expectancies of the average of all their members are facts in modern history that are disputed by nobody. What is disputed by the most renowned names in demography, however, is that aging populations are a consequence of the fall in mortality and thus the increase in life expectancy. It is claimed that the [principal] reason for ¿aging' is to be found in a drop in fertility. In this sense today's demographers regard as a standard result: ¿Variations in fertility are of more significance for the age structure of populations than variations in mortality'. In the following paper this thesis, which is based on a neo-Malthusian interpretation of the role of fertility in the demographic process, will be questioned."

摘要

平均预期寿命不断增长的“老龄化社会”是现代历史上无可争议的事实。然而,人口统计学领域最知名的学者们所争议的是,人口老龄化是死亡率下降从而预期寿命增加的结果。有人声称,“老龄化”的[主要]原因在于生育率的下降。从这个意义上说,当今的人口统计学家将其视为一个标准结论:“生育率的变化对人口年龄结构的影响比死亡率的变化更为显著”。在接下来的论文中,基于对生育率在人口过程中作用的新马尔萨斯主义解释的这一论点将受到质疑。

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