Cebula R J, Belton W J
Public Financ. 1995;50(3):342-55.
"This study argues that, given the tax deductibility of alimony payments in the United States, higher marginal federal income tax rates may reduce the expected transactions costs of divorce and act thereby to increase the divorce rate. After allowing for a variety of other factors, including inflation, female labor force participation, AIDS, the Vietnam War, age, the availability of legal assistance, and transfer payments, both first-differences estimates and Granger-causality tests strongly support the hypothesis."
本研究认为,鉴于在美国赡养费支付可享受税收减免,较高的联邦边际所得税率可能会降低预期的离婚交易成本,从而导致离婚率上升。在考虑了包括通货膨胀、女性劳动力参与率、艾滋病、越南战争、年龄、法律援助的可获得性以及转移支付等各种其他因素之后,一阶差分估计和格兰杰因果检验均有力地支持了这一假设。