Yang X
Department of Sociology and Criminal Justice, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA 23529, USA.
Soc Biol. 2001 Spring-Summer;48(1-2):151-70.
Using Hubei province as a case study, this paper retests the detachment hypothesis against the three conventional hypotheses regarding migration-fertility linkage (i.e., selectivity, disruption, and adaptation hypotheses) in explaining migrant and non-migrant fertility differentials in China. The analysis of yearly order-specific birth probabilities suggests that temporary migrants exhibit a significantly higher probability of having a second or higher order birth than comparable permanent migrants and non-migrants. This higher fertility among temporary migrants occurs after migration; temporary migrants actually do not differ from non-migrants in fertility before migration. But permanent migrants experience no significant change in their fertility after migration. The results lend a strong support to the detachment hypothesis, which best explains the fertility differentials between migrant and non-migrant populations in contemporary China; the separation of temporary migrants' actual residence from their official one does lead to a greater likelihood among temporary migrants to have unplanned births.
本文以湖北省为例，重新检验了“脱离假设”，以对抗关于迁移与生育联系的三个传统假设（即选择性假设、中断假设和适应假设），这些假设用于解释中国移民和非移民的生育差异。对按年份顺序特定的生育概率分析表明，临时移民生育二孩或更高孩次的概率显著高于可比的永久移民和非移民。临时移民这种较高的生育率出现在迁移之后；实际上，临时移民在迁移前的生育率与非移民并无差异。但永久移民在迁移后的生育率没有显著变化。这些结果有力地支持了“脱离假设”，该假设最能解释当代中国移民和非移民人口之间的生育差异；临时移民的实际居住地与官方登记地分离确实导致临时移民更有可能生育计划外子女。
