Cook Philip J, Ludwig Jens
Sanford Institute of Public Policy, Duke University, USA.
Future Child. 2002 Summer-Fall;12(2):86-99.
Gun violence imposes significant costs on children, families, and American society as a whole. But these costs can be difficult to quantify, as much of the burden of gun violence results from intangible concerns about injury and death. This article explores several methods for estimating the costs of gun violence. One method is to assess how much Americans would be willing to pay to reduce the risk of gun violence. The authors use this "willingness-to-pay" framework to estimate the total costs of gun violence. Their approach yields the following lessons: Although gun violence has a disproportionate impact on the poor, it imposes costs on the entire socioeconomic spectrum through increased taxes, decreased property values, limits on choices of where to live and visit, and safety concerns. Most of the costs of gun violence--especially violence against children--result from concerns about safety. These are not captured by the traditional public health approach to estimating costs, which focuses on medical expenses and lost earnings. When people in a national survey were asked about their willingness to pay for reductions in gun violence, their answers suggested that the costs of gun violence are approximately $100 billion per year, of which at least $15 billion is directly attributable to gun violence against youth. The authors note that in light of the substantial costs of gun violence, even modestly effective regulatory and other interventions may generate benefits to society that exceed costs.
枪支暴力给儿童、家庭乃至整个美国社会都带来了巨大的代价。但这些代价难以量化,因为枪支暴力的许多负担源于对伤亡的无形担忧。本文探讨了几种估算枪支暴力代价的方法。一种方法是评估美国人愿意为降低枪支暴力风险支付多少费用。作者使用这种“支付意愿”框架来估算枪支暴力的总成本。他们的方法得出了以下结论:尽管枪支暴力对穷人的影响尤为严重,但它通过增加税收、降低房产价值、限制居住和出行地点的选择以及引发安全担忧,给整个社会经济阶层都带来了成本。枪支暴力的大部分成本——尤其是针对儿童的暴力——源于对安全的担忧。传统的公共卫生成本估算方法并未涵盖这些成本,该方法主要关注医疗费用和收入损失。当在一项全国性调查中询问人们为减少枪支暴力愿意支付的费用时,他们的回答表明,枪支暴力的成本每年约为1000亿美元,其中至少150亿美元直接归因于针对青少年的枪支暴力。作者指出,鉴于枪支暴力的巨大成本,即使是效果一般的监管及其他干预措施也可能为社会带来超过成本的收益。