Pekmezovic Tatjana, Jarebinski Mirjana, Drulovic Jelena, Stojsavljevic Nebojsa, Levic Zvonimir
Institute of Epidemiology, School of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Yugoslavia.
Neuroepidemiology. 2002 Sep-Oct;21(5):235-40. doi: 10.1159/000065641.
The aim of this study was to estimate survival rates of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients in the Belgrade population, Yugoslavia, and furthermore, to determine the prognostic value of some demographic and clinical variables for survival. The cumulative survival probability was calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. The prognostic value of different variables was assessed by univariate and multivariate analyses using the Cox regression model. In the Belgrade population, the cumulative 25-year survival probability of MS patients and the mean survival time from MS onset were 73.2% and 38 years, respectively. The univariate analysis showed that survival was significantly related to sex, age at onset, course of disease and monoregional initial symptoms. A multivariate model demonstrated that a relapsing-remitting course of MS and monoregional onset were predictors of a better prognosis. The presence of motor symptoms at the onset was found to be an independent predictor of a poorer outcome of MS.
本研究的目的是评估南斯拉夫贝尔格莱德人群中多发性硬化症（MS）患者的生存率，此外，确定一些人口统计学和临床变量对生存的预后价值。累积生存概率采用Kaplan-Meier法计算。使用Cox回归模型通过单变量和多变量分析评估不同变量的预后价值。在贝尔格莱德人群中，MS患者的累积25年生存概率和自MS发病起的平均生存时间分别为73.2%和38年。单变量分析表明，生存与性别、发病年龄、病程和单区域初始症状显著相关。多变量模型表明，MS的复发缓解病程和单区域发病是预后较好的预测因素。发现发病时存在运动症状是MS预后较差的独立预测因素。
