Popul Bull. 1982 Jun;37(2):1-51.
This Bulletin reviews recent trends in the dynamics and character of the U.S. population, the outlook for the remainder of the 1980s, and prospects for longterm growth. Estimated at 232 million as of mid-1982, the U.S. population is currently growing at about 1% a year, one of the developed world's highest growth rates. Natural increase (births-deaths) still adds some 1.7 million people a year, despite the rapid postbaby boom fall in fertility to a near-record low rate of 1.9 births/woman in 1981. With increasing numbers of refugees, net legal immigration averaged 600,000/year in 1979-81 and the net inflow of illegal immigrants may now be 500,000 a year. Uncertainty over potentially large numbers of immigrants complicates projections of future U.S. population size. Currently, the U.S. death rate is at an alltime low. More than 1/2 the population now resides in the South and West. Rural areas and small towns grew faster than urban areas in the 1970s for the 1st time in over a century. Educational attainment is at an alltime high, as is labor force participation, due to increasing employment among women and the baby boom generation's arrival at working ages. The age composition of the population, with the bulge of the baby boom generation surrounded by the older "depression" generation born during the 1930s and the younger "baby bust" generation born since the end of the 1960s, presents special problems for U.S. society.
本公报回顾了美国人口动态与特征的近期趋势、20世纪80年代剩余时间的前景以及长期增长的前景。截至1982年年中，美国人口估计为2.32亿，目前正以每年约1%的速度增长，是发达国家中增长率最高的国家之一。尽管在婴儿潮之后生育率迅速下降，1981年降至接近创纪录的低水平，即每名妇女生育1.9个孩子，但自然增长（出生人数减去死亡人数）每年仍增加约170万人。随着难民人数的增加，1979 - 1981年合法移民的净平均数为每年60万，目前非法移民的净流入量可能为每年50万。潜在的大量移民的不确定性使对美国未来人口规模的预测变得复杂。目前，美国的死亡率处于历史最低水平。现在超过一半的人口居住在南部和西部。在20世纪70年代，农村地区和小城镇的增长速度超过城市地区，这是一个多世纪以来的首次。由于女性就业人数增加以及婴儿潮一代达到工作年龄，教育程度处于历史最高水平，劳动力参与率也是如此。人口的年龄构成，即婴儿潮一代的高峰被20世纪30年代出生的较年长的“大萧条”一代以及自20世纪60年代末以来出生的较年轻的“生育低谷”一代所包围，给美国社会带来了特殊问题。
