Jain R K, Sharma R D, Jain S
Genus. 1985 Jul-Dec;41(3-4):127-33.
"The objective of this paper is to justify the use of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models for birth time series data of the province of Ontario [Canada]." The results show that the model provides satisfactory short-term forecasts. "It shows that along with seasonal varations, non-seasonal variations due to reporting etc. must be taken into account for interpreting similar time series data." (summary in FRE, ITA)