1751 - 1913年瑞典婚姻状况短期波动的决定因素：多元自回归积分移动平均模型的应用
Determinants of short-term fluctuations in nuptiality in Sweden, 1751-1913: application of multivariate ARIMA models.
作者信息
Larsen U
出版信息
Eur J Popul. 1988 May;3(2):203-32. doi: 10.1007/BF01796776.
"This study examines the determinants of short-term fluctuations in nuptiality in Sweden from 1751 to 1913, using ARIMA [Auto Regressive Integrated Moving-Average] models.... The following general patterns prevailed throughout the period 1751-1913: both better economic conditions (good harvests and lower rye prices) and higher mortality (leading to more remarriages, and enabling first marriages through inheritance) were followed by higher nuptiality. In addition, emigration of single persons after 1850 was inversely related to nuptiality." (SUMMARY IN FRE)
本研究使用自回归积分滑动平均（ARIMA）模型，考察了1751年至1913年瑞典婚姻状况短期波动的决定因素……在1751年至1913年期间，普遍存在以下总体模式：经济状况改善（丰收和黑麦价格降低）以及死亡率上升（导致更多再婚，并通过继承促成初婚）之后，结婚率都会提高。此外，1850年之后单身人士的移民与结婚率呈负相关。 （法语摘要）
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