Richards T
Demography. 1983 May;20(2):197-212.
This paper analyzes short-run fluctuations in national time series of vital events for France in the period 1740 to 1909. Fertility, mortality, and nuptiality form a simultaneous system which interacts with economic and meteorological conditions. In the short run, the demographic variables are endogenous. Economic and meteorological conditions are exogenous. Our indicator of economic conditions is the price of wheat, the principal food crop. Biometric models of fertility and empirical research on the biologically-based interrelations of fertility and mortality provide insight into the expected timing of events. We combine these results with empirical research on the effects of nutrition on fertility and mortality, research in medical biometeorology, and French historical demographic and economic research to formulate our model. The resultant distributed lag system is estimated. We find that the economic/nutritional effects are more likely to be statistically significant in predicting the time path of vital events than are the demographic variables or the effects of meteorological conditions.
本文分析了1740年至1909年期间法国全国生命事件时间序列中的短期波动。生育率、死亡率和结婚率构成了一个与经济和气象条件相互作用的联立系统。在短期内，人口变量是内生的。经济和气象条件是外生的。我们衡量经济条件的指标是主要粮食作物小麦的价格。生育率的生物统计学模型以及基于生物学的生育率与死亡率相互关系的实证研究，为事件的预期时间提供了见解。我们将这些结果与关于营养对生育率和死亡率影响的实证研究、医学气象学研究以及法国历史人口与经济研究相结合，以构建我们的模型。对由此产生的分布滞后系统进行了估计。我们发现，在预测生命事件的时间路径方面，经济/营养效应比人口变量或气象条件的效应更有可能具有统计学意义。
