De Beer J
Maandstat Bevolking. 1990 Jul;38(7):11-9.
"Since 1985 monthly forecasts have been made of yearly numbers of births, deaths, immigration, emigration and marriages [in the Netherlands] on the basis of monthly figures. The forecasts are equal to the arithmetic average of an ARIMA projection and a naive forecast.... This article compares the forecasts for the years 1985-1989 with forecasts obtained from a simple alternative method." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
自1985年起，根据月度数据对（荷兰）每年的出生、死亡、移民、移出和结婚人数进行月度预测。这些预测等于自回归积分移动平均模型（ARIMA）预测值与简单预测值的算术平均值……本文将1985 - 1989年的预测结果与通过一种简单替代方法得出的预测结果进行比较。 （英文摘要）
