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[按户主队列变化按家庭类型预测家庭的方法——第2部分。在家庭形成阶段按家庭类型预测婚姻状况和户主率]

[[The method for projecting households by family type in terms of headship cohort change--Part 2. Projecting marital status and headship rates by family type in household formation stage]].

作者信息

Oe M

出版信息

Jinko Mondai Kenkyu. 1994 Jan;49(4):1-22.

PMID:12288665
Abstract

"This article is Part 2 of the study on the method for projecting households [in Japan] by family type.... Part 1 was on modelling the transition process among different family types of households headed by [persons] over 35 years old, and on the method for projecting households by family type using the transition model.... Part 2 focuses on the method for projecting households in the formation stage headed by [those] under 34 years old.... Among projection outcomes, the proportion never married of males aged 30-34 goes up from 32.8 per cent to 37.3 per cent between 1990 and 2010, and the proportion never married of females aged 25-29 from 40.4 per cent to 47.1 per cent. [The] tendency of late marriage will continue to the beginning of the twenty-first century." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

摘要

本文是关于[日本]按家庭类型预测家庭方法研究的第二部分……第一部分是关于对35岁以上[人群]为首的不同家庭类型家庭之间的转变过程进行建模,以及使用转变模型按家庭类型预测家庭的方法……第二部分聚焦于对34岁以下[人群]为首的处于形成阶段家庭的预测方法……在预测结果中,1990年至2010年间,30 - 34岁男性的未婚比例从32.8%升至37.3%,25 - 29岁女性的未婚比例从40.4%升至47.1%。晚婚趋势将持续到21世纪初。(英文摘要)

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