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[人口数据与住房潜在需求:群组研究方法]

[Demographic data and the potential demand for housing: a cohort approach].

作者信息

Lewis R D

出版信息

Cah Que Demogr. 1995 Spring;24(1):65-86.

Abstract

"Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation is actively involved in conducting research on demographic change and housing demand. Household projections are at the center of this research....CMHC is working with the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University to develop a cohort-based method for extrapolating headship and ownership rates. The method offers advantages over other approaches in that it recognizes differences between generations, provides a useful framework for analysis, and offers considerable flexibility in tailoring projection assumptions. Preliminary cohort-based potential housing demand projections show broad consistency with current low levels of housing market activity and point to continuation of some of the established trends in the past twenty years." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA)

摘要

加拿大抵押贷款和住房公司积极参与有关人口变化和住房需求的研究。家庭预测是这项研究的核心……加拿大抵押贷款和住房公司正在与哈佛大学住房研究联合中心合作,开发一种基于队列的方法来推断户主率和住房拥有率。该方法比其他方法具有优势,因为它认识到不同代际之间的差异,提供了一个有用的分析框架,并在定制预测假设方面具有相当大的灵活性。基于队列的初步潜在住房需求预测与当前住房市场活动的低水平大体一致,并表明过去二十年中一些既定趋势将持续。 (英文和西班牙文摘要)

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