Marchetti C
Technol Forecast Soc Change. 1997;55:281-99. doi: 10.1016/s0040-1625(97)00024-3.
"In this article the evolution of life expectancy is examined historically for various European nations at various ages, and according to sex. Appropriate logistic equations describe the facts and extrapolate into the future giving the doctor an indication of what is still to be accomplished and the demographer the tools with which to evaluate the aging of European population in the next 20 years....I posit that the increase in life expectancy is the product of a learning process to remove the accidents and obstacles on the way to the full life potential of an individual: longevity."
在本文中，我们从历史角度审视了欧洲各国不同年龄段以及按性别划分的预期寿命演变情况。合适的逻辑方程描述了这些事实，并对未来进行外推，为医生提供仍需达成目标的指示，也为人口统计学家提供评估未来20年欧洲人口老龄化情况的工具……我认为预期寿命的增加是一个学习过程的产物，该过程旨在消除个人实现全部生命潜能（即长寿）道路上的意外和障碍。
