Day N E, Gore S M, De Angelis D
J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc. 1995;158(3):505-24.
Some implications of the use of the back-calculation method for estimating future trends in HIV infections and AIDS incidence in England and Wales are explored. "This paper explores in...detail some aspects of the latest projections which have only been hinted at in the report published by the Public Health Laboratory Service in 1993. The value of additional information on the HIV epidemic in discriminating between different, otherwise equally plausible, scenarios is demonstrated. The role of the backcalculation approach in determining whether, and how, the incubation distribution has been affected by increased uptake of pre-AIDS prophylaxis and treatment is discussed."
本文探讨了运用回溯法估计英格兰和威尔士未来艾滋病毒感染趋势及艾滋病发病率的一些影响。“本文详细探讨了一些最新预测的某些方面，这些方面在公共卫生实验室服务局1993年发布的报告中只是略有提及。文中展示了关于艾滋病毒流行的更多信息在区分不同但看似同样合理的情况时的价值。讨论了回溯法在确定艾滋病前期预防和治疗的更多应用是否以及如何影响潜伏期分布方面的作用。”
