Manton K G
Comp Soc Res. 1984;7:259-86.
The implications of recent demographic trends in developed countries are considered. The emphasis is on the increase in life expectancy, and particularly in the rate of growth of the numbers of the very old (those aged 85 and over). "To evaluate the impact of recent mortality reductions on the social security and health service systems of developed countries [the author analyzes] the mortality conditions of 11 developed countries over the period 1950 to 1978." The countries concerned are the United States, Canada, Japan, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, the United Kingdom, the Federal Republic of Germany, and France. "The results of [the] analyses show that major increases in life expectancy have occurred at advanced ages for females and that the cross-country differences in the cause of death structure indicate that advances were achieved through a variety of mechanisms. Thus, it appears that no single uniform model of biological aging will currently explain cause specific mortality trends in countries with historically high life expectancies. This implies that further mortality reductions are possible in these countries by achieving cause specific mortality reductions observed to have occurred in another country." This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1983 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 49, No. 3, Fall 1983, p. 413).
本文探讨了发达国家近期人口趋势的影响。重点关注预期寿命的增加，特别是高龄老人（85岁及以上）数量的增长速度。“为评估近期死亡率下降对发达国家社会保障和医疗服务系统的影响，[作者分析了]1950年至1978年期间11个发达国家的死亡状况。” 所涉及的国家包括美国、加拿大、日本、挪威、瑞典、丹麦、捷克斯洛伐克、匈牙利、英国、德意志联邦共和国和法国。“分析结果表明，女性高龄人群的预期寿命有了显著提高，而且死因结构的跨国差异表明，预期寿命的提高是通过多种机制实现的。因此，目前似乎没有单一统一的生物衰老模型能够解释预期寿命历史较高国家特定死因的死亡率趋势。这意味着，通过实现其他国家所观察到的特定死因死亡率下降，这些国家有可能进一步降低死亡率。” 这是一篇论文的修订版，该论文最初于1983年在美国人口协会年会上发表（见《人口索引》，第49卷，第3期，1983年秋季，第413页）。
