Lempert D
East Afr Econ Rev. 1987 Jun;3(1):77-90.
"This paper examines current models of economic and political development--social modernization theory, political and economic characteristics of stable regimes, and cross country analysis of political stability--and tests them on the Indian Ocean Island of Mauritius. The analysis continues with a causal explanation for political stability in Mauritius' recent history, derived from an examination of economic policies and demographic patterns. Political change in Mauritius over the past sixty years seems to be explained best by a model for political stability which integrates specific economic and demographic factors. The model, applicable to development in other third world nations, revises Malthus' conclusion that population and economic conditions move in an oscillatory relationship and replaces it with a more comprehensive theory, suggesting that political stability is a function of both economic development and a repeating cyclical relationship between economics and population."
本文考察了当前的经济和政治发展模式——社会现代化理论、稳定政权的政治和经济特征以及政治稳定性的跨国分析——并在印度洋岛国毛里求斯对其进行检验。分析接着对毛里求斯近期历史上的政治稳定给出因果解释，这一解释源自对经济政策和人口模式的考察。过去六十年来毛里求斯的政治变革似乎最好由一个整合了特定经济和人口因素的政治稳定模型来解释。该模型适用于其他第三世界国家的发展，它修正了马尔萨斯关于人口与经济状况呈振荡关系的结论，并用一个更全面的理论取而代之，该理论认为政治稳定是经济发展以及经济与人口之间反复出现的周期性关系的函数。
