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具有两性算法的多维人口预测模型中的敏感性分析。

Sensitivity analysis in a multidimensional demographic projection model with a two-sex algorithm.

作者信息

Ekamper P, Keilman N

出版信息

Math Popul Stud. 1993;4(1):21-36. doi: 10.1080/08898489309525354.

DOI:10.1080/08898489309525354
PMID:12344657
Abstract

"Formulas are derived for the effect that a slight change in the occurrence/exposure rate of the multidimensional projection model has on the elements of the population vector. The projection model classifies the population by sex, age, and marital status. The model includes a two-sex algorithm in order to ensure consistency between numbers of male and female marriages, number of divorces for the two sexes, and new widows (widowers) and deceased spouses. The sensitivity functions and elasticities are applied to data from the Netherlands for the period 1980-1984. The results indicate that marriage market mechanisms, in particular competition and substitution effects, are reasonably well modelled."

摘要

推导了多维投影模型的发生率/暴露率的微小变化对总体向量元素的影响的公式。该投影模型按性别、年龄和婚姻状况对总体进行分类。该模型包括一个双性算法,以确保男女婚姻数量、两性离婚数量以及新寡妇(鳏夫)和已故配偶之间的一致性。将敏感性函数和弹性应用于1980 - 1984年荷兰的数据。结果表明,婚姻市场机制,特别是竞争和替代效应,得到了合理的建模。

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