冠状动脉搭桥手术早期死亡率和发病率的术前预测。
Preoperative prediction of early mortality and morbidity in coronary bypass surgery.
作者信息
Wouters Stijn C W, Noyez Luc, Verheugt Freek W A, Brouwer Rene M H J
机构信息
Heartcenter, Department of Thoracic and Cardiac Surgery-414, University of Nijmegen Medical Center, St. Radboud, PO Box 9101, The Netherlands.
出版信息
Cardiovasc Surg. 2002 Oct;10(5):500-5. doi: 10.1016/s0967-2109(02)00081-9.
OBJECTIVE
A scoring system to predict early mortality and morbidity in CABG, distinguishing low and high risk patients.
METHODS
563 patients (1998) served as development dataset, 969 patients as validation set. Univariate and logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors.
RESULTS
Gender, hypertension, pulmonary disease, reoperation, age, operative status and left-ventricular function were predictive variables for early mortality. The area under the ROC curve was 0.81. We identified a low risk, mortality of 1.8% and a high-risk group, mortality of 13.4%. Diabetes, hypertension, kidney and lung disease, reoperation, operative status and left ventricular function were predictive variables for morbidity. The area under the ROC curve was 0.73. We identified a low risk, morbidity of 17%, and a high-risk group, morbidity of 41%.
CONCLUSION
This scoring system is a simple system identifying a low and high-risk group for morbidity and early mortality.
目的
建立一种用于预测冠状动脉旁路移植术（CABG）早期死亡率和发病率的评分系统，以区分低风险和高风险患者。
方法
563例患者（1998年）作为开发数据集，969例患者作为验证集。采用单因素和逻辑回归分析来确定风险因素。
结果
性别、高血压、肺部疾病、再次手术、年龄、手术状态和左心室功能是早期死亡率的预测变量。ROC曲线下面积为0.81。我们确定了一个低风险组，死亡率为1.8%，以及一个高风险组，死亡率为13.4%。糖尿病、高血压、肾脏和肺部疾病、再次手术、手术状态和左心室功能是发病率的预测变量。ROC曲线下面积为0.73。我们确定了一个低风险组，发病率为17%，以及一个高风险组，发病率为41%。
结论
该评分系统是一种简单的系统，可识别发病率和早期死亡率的低风险和高风险组。
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