Olesen A V, Mortensen P B
Department of Psychiatric Demography, Risskov, Denmark.
Psychol Med. 2002 Oct;32(7):1301-7. doi: 10.1017/s0033291702005548.
Several studies have investigated the issue of the natural course of schizophrenia. Our study addressed whether there is evidence for progression, potentially deteriorating, over the long-term course of the disorder.
Modern survival analysis techniques were applied to case-register data on the pattern of readmission to in-patient psychiatric facilities. The sample consisted of a total of 8953 persons with schizophrenia.
No evidence of a progressive course of schizophrenia was found in the present study. The accelerating pattern of the course of schizophrenia described by some authors, including a previous analysis of an almost identical dataset, can be explained by selection.
Heterogeneity reflecting the various levels of individual vulnerability may govern the overall individual course of schizophrenia. We hypothesize that the persistent deficit syndrome and negative symptoms are influential determinants of this heterogeneity.
多项研究探讨了精神分裂症的自然病程问题。我们的研究关注在该疾病的长期病程中是否存在病情进展（潜在恶化）的证据。
将现代生存分析技术应用于住院精神科机构再入院模式的病例登记数据。样本共包括8953名精神分裂症患者。
本研究未发现精神分裂症病程呈进行性发展的证据。一些作者所描述的精神分裂症病程加速模式，包括之前对几乎相同数据集的分析，可通过选择来解释。
反映个体易感性不同水平的异质性可能决定了精神分裂症的总体个体病程。我们推测持续性缺损综合征和阴性症状是这种异质性的影响因素。
