[Probability models for altitude decompression sickness].

Objective. To study the probability or risk of decompression sickness in high altitude flight and to establish a probability model. Method. Survival analysis technique was used in the analysis of the information about altitude decompression sickness. Result. It was found that the risk of decompression sickness initially increases up to a certain time point, and then decreases because of denitrogenation. The hazard function may describe the characteristics of this pattern in changes of risk. The parameters of probability models for altitude decompression sickness can be estimated by using the maximum likelihood method. Conclusion. Prediction with the survival models based on the logistic distribution is good.