Davies Ruth, Crabbe David, Roderick Paul, Goddard Jonathan R, Raftery James, Patel Praful
School of Management, University of Southampton, UK.
Health Care Manag Sci. 2002 Nov;5(4):249-58. doi: 10.1023/a:1020326005465.
A discrete event simulation model has evaluated a screening programme for Helicobacter pylori infection (H. pylori) in which individuals under the age of 50 years would be screened once. Eradication of H. pylori would reduce the peptic ulcer risk immediately and the gastric cancer risk after a fixed delay. The data were derived from published databases and peer reviewed papers. The simulation model, using variance reduction techniques, predicted that a screening programme would reduce morbidity and deaths but could cost around 19 million pounds for England and Wales in the first year of screening. A factorial design analysis showed the sensitivity of key variables. An increase in the opportunistic testing was found significantly to reduce the impact of screening.
一个离散事件模拟模型对幽门螺杆菌感染（H. pylori）的筛查项目进行了评估，该项目对50岁以下的个体进行一次性筛查。根除幽门螺杆菌可立即降低消化性溃疡风险，并在经过一段固定延迟后降低胃癌风险。数据来源于已发表的数据库和同行评审论文。该模拟模型采用方差缩减技术预测，筛查项目将降低发病率和死亡率，但在筛查的第一年，英格兰和威尔士的成本可能约为1900万英镑。析因设计分析显示了关键变量的敏感性。研究发现，机会性检测的增加可显著降低筛查的影响。
