Simonovic Slobodan P
Civil and Environmental Engineering, UWO, London, Ontario, Canada.
J Environ Manage. 2002 Nov;66(3):249-67. doi: 10.1006/jema.2002.0585.
The growing scarcity of fresh and clean water is among the most important issues facing civilization in the 21st century. Despite the growing attention to a chronic, pernicious crisis in world's water resources our ability to correctly assess and predict global water availability, use and balance is still quite limited. An attempt is documented here in modeling global world water resources using system dynamics approach. Water resources sector (quantity and quality) is integrated with five sectors that drive industrial growth: population; agriculture; economy; nonrenewable resources; and persistent pollution. WorldWater model is developed on the basis of the last version of World3 model. Simulations of world water dynamics with WorldWater indicate that there is a strong relationship between the world water resources and future industrial growth of the world. It is also shown that the water pollution is the most important future water issue on the global level.
新鲜洁净水资源日益稀缺是21世纪人类文明面临的最重要问题之一。尽管全球水资源的长期、有害危机日益受到关注,但我们正确评估和预测全球水资源可利用量、用水量及平衡的能力仍然十分有限。本文记录了一次运用系统动力学方法对全球水资源进行建模的尝试。水资源部门(数量和质量)与推动工业增长的五个部门相结合:人口、农业、经济、不可再生资源和持续性污染。世界水模型是在世界3模型的最新版本基础上开发的。利用世界水模型对世界水动态进行的模拟表明,世界水资源与世界未来工业增长之间存在着紧密的关系。研究还表明,水污染是全球层面未来最重要的水问题。