Matsunaga E
Hum Genet. 1976 Jan 28;31(1):53-7. doi: 10.1007/BF00270399.
With increasing success in medical treatment for many common disorders with complex inheritance, it is expected that the incidence of patients requiring treatment will gradually rise from generation to generation. While this is theoretically true for a long range of future, the pattern of possible increase in the frequency of a disorder resulting from complete cure has been examined with special reference to the next few generations. It was shown that the maximum possible increment will take place in the first generation, with additional increment rapidly diminishing with subsequent generations. For congenital heart disease, for example, the restoration of full fertility to all of the patients would incur an increase in the frequency at birth of the disease by about 10% after 5 to 10 generations.
随着针对许多具有复杂遗传特征的常见疾病的医学治疗取得越来越大的成功,预计需要治疗的患者发病率将逐代逐渐上升。虽然从长远来看这在理论上是正确的,但已经特别参照接下来的几代人研究了因完全治愈而导致疾病频率可能增加的模式。结果表明,最大可能的增量将在第一代出现,随着后续世代的增加,额外的增量会迅速减少。例如,对于先天性心脏病,若所有患者都恢复完全生育能力,那么在5至10代之后,该病出生时的发病率将增加约10%。