Goldberg Mark S, Burnett Richard T, Valois Marie-France, Flegel Kenneth, Bailar John C, Brook Jeffrey, Vincent Renaud, Radon Katja
Department of Medicine, McGill University, Montreal, Que, Canada.
Environ Res. 2003 Jan;91(1):8-20. doi: 10.1016/s0013-9351(02)00022-1.
We conducted a mortality time series study to investigate the association between daily mortality for congestive heart failure (CHF), and daily concentrations of particles and gaseous pollutants in the ambient air of Montreal, Quebec, during the period 1984-1993. In addition, using data from the universal Quebec Health Insurance Plan, we identified individuals >/=65 years of age who, one year before death, had a diagnosis of CHF. Fixed-site air pollution monitors in Montreal provided daily mean levels of pollutants. We regressed the logarithm of daily counts of mortality on the daily mean levels of each pollutant, after accounting for seasonal and subseasonal fluctuations in the mortality time series, non-Poisson dispersion, weather variables, and other gaseous and particle pollutants. Using cause of death information, we did not find any associations between daily mortality for CHF and any air pollutants. The analyses of CHF defined from the medical record showed positive associations with coefficient of haze, the extinction coefficient, SO(2), and NO(2). For example, the mean percent increase in daily mortality for an increase in the coefficient of haze across the interquartile range was 4.32% (95% CI: 0.95-7.80%) and for NO(2) it was 4.08% (95% CI: 0.59-7.68%). These effects were generally higher in the warm season.
我们开展了一项死亡率时间序列研究,以调查1984年至1993年期间魁北克省蒙特利尔市环境空气中颗粒物和气态污染物的日浓度与充血性心力衰竭(CHF)每日死亡率之间的关联。此外,利用魁北克全民健康保险计划的数据,我们确定了年龄≥65岁、在死亡前一年被诊断为CHF的个体。蒙特利尔的固定站点空气污染监测仪提供了污染物的日平均水平。在考虑了死亡率时间序列中的季节性和亚季节性波动、非泊松离散、天气变量以及其他气态和颗粒物污染物之后,我们将每日死亡人数的对数与每种污染物的日平均水平进行了回归分析。利用死亡原因信息,我们未发现CHF的每日死亡率与任何空气污染物之间存在关联。对病历中定义的CHF进行的分析显示,其与霾系数、消光系数、SO₂和NO₂之间存在正相关。例如,霾系数在四分位间距范围内增加时,每日死亡率的平均百分比增幅为4.32%(95%置信区间:0.95 - 7.80%),NO₂增加时为4.08%(95%置信区间:0.59 - 7.68%)。这些影响在温暖季节通常更高。