Gunnell David, Middleton Nicos, Whitley Elise, Dorling Daniel, Frankel Stephen
Department of Social Medicine, University of Bristol, UK.
Br J Psychiatry. 2003 Feb;182:164-70. doi: 10.1192/bjp.182.2.164.
Age- and gender-specific suicide rates in England and Wales have changed considerably since 1950.
To assess whether cohort effects underlie some of these changes.
Graphical displays to assess age-period-cohort effects on suicide for the period 1950-1999.
Successive male birth cohorts born after 1940 carried with them, as they aged, a greater risk of suicide than their predecessors although this effect diminished for the 1975 and 1980 birth cohorts. There was less clear evidence of any increased risk of suicide in post-war female birth cohorts.
Succeeding generations of males born in the post-war years have experienced increasing rates of suicide at all ages, an observation in keeping with patterns seen in other countries. If these trends continue into middle- and old-age they will lead to a great increase in overall male suicide rates.
自1950年以来，英格兰和威尔士特定年龄和性别的自杀率发生了显著变化。
评估队列效应是否是这些变化的部分原因。
通过图形展示评估1950年至1999年期间年龄-时期-队列效应与自杀的关系。
1940年后出生的连续几代男性随着年龄增长，自杀风险高于他们的前辈，尽管1975年和1980年出生队列的这种效应有所减弱。战后女性出生队列中自杀风险增加的证据不那么明显。
战后出生的几代男性在所有年龄段的自杀率都在上升，这一观察结果与其他国家的情况一致。如果这些趋势持续到中年和老年，将导致男性总体自杀率大幅上升。
