Department of Sociology/Institute for Health, Health Care Policy and Aging Research (IHHCPAR), Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, 26 Nichol Avenue, New Brunswick, NJ 08901-2882, USA.
Soc Sci Med. 2014 Aug;114:151-60. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2014.05.038. Epub 2014 May 27.
The increases in suicide among middle-aged baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) in the United States since 1999 suggest a changing epidemiology of suicide. Using data from 1935 to 2010, this paper conducts age-period-cohort analyses to determine the impact of cohorts in shaping temporal patterns of suicide in the United States. The analysis demonstrates that age, period and cohort effects are all important in determining suicide trends. Net of age and period effects, the cohort pattern of suicide rates is U-shaped, with cohorts born between 1915 and 1945 possessing among the very lowest suicide rates. Suicide rates begin to rise with boomers and subsequent cohorts exhibit increasingly higher rates of suicide. The general pattern exists for both men and women but is especially pronounced among males. The average suicide rate over the entire period for males is about 28 per 100,000, 95% CI [27.4, 28.7]. For males born in 1930-34, the suicide rate is estimated to be 17.4 per 100,000, 95% CI [15.9, 18.8]; for males born between 1955 and 1959, the rate is essentially the same as the average for the period while for males born between 1985 and 1989, the suicide rate is estimated to be 37.8 per 100,000, 95% CI [33.1, 43.4]. The results dispute popular claims that boomers exhibit an elevated suicide rate relative to other generations, but boomers do appear to have ushered in new cohort patterns of suicide rates over the life course. These patterns are interpreted within a Durkheimian framework that suggests weakened forms of social integration and regulation among postwar cohorts may be producing increased suicide rates.
自 1999 年以来，美国中年婴儿潮一代（1946 年至 1964 年之间出生）自杀率上升，这表明自杀的流行病学正在发生变化。本文利用 1935 年至 2010 年的数据，通过年龄-时期-队列分析来确定队列在塑造美国自杀的时间模式方面的影响。分析表明，年龄、时期和队列效应在确定自杀趋势方面都很重要。在消除年龄和时期效应后，自杀率的队列模式呈 U 型，出生于 1915 年至 1945 年的队列自杀率最低。自杀率随着婴儿潮一代的到来而上升，随后的队列自杀率则越来越高。这一总体模式在男性和女性中都存在，但在男性中尤为明显。在整个时期，男性的平均自杀率约为每 10 万人 28 例，95%置信区间为[27.4, 28.7]。对于出生于 1930-34 年的男性，自杀率估计为每 10 万人 17.4 例，95%置信区间为[15.9, 18.8]；对于出生于 1955-1959 年的男性，自杀率与该时期的平均水平基本相同，而对于出生于 1985-1989 年的男性，自杀率估计为每 10 万人 37.8 例，95%置信区间为[33.1, 43.4]。研究结果驳斥了流行的观点，即婴儿潮一代的自杀率相对于其他几代人更高，但婴儿潮一代确实在整个生命周期中引入了新的自杀率队列模式。这些模式是在迪尔凯姆的框架内解释的，该框架表明战后各队列的社会整合和规范形式减弱，可能导致自杀率上升。
