Impact of antimicrobial resistance on health outcomes in the out-patient treatment of adult community-acquired pneumonia: a probability model.

Out-patient treatment of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a major challenge in an era of increasing prevalence of antimicrobial resistance. However, data describing the clinical impact of such resistance are scarce. A probability model was developed to estimate the impact of antimicrobial resistance on clinical outcomes for adults with CAP, eligible for out-patient care. The model assumed patients would be evaluated at 48-72 h, with those failing to improve being either hospitalized or switched to a different antibiotic. Two strategies were considered: amoxicillin followed by erythromycin (amoxicillin/erythromycin) and erythromycin followed by levofloxacin (erythromycin/levofloxacin). Analyses were conducted based on susceptibility of the major pathogens in France and the UK. Primary model-generated outcome measures were the proportion of patients successfully treated with first-line therapy and the proportion of patients subsequently hospitalized. The model estimated that in France, the amoxicillin/erythromycin strategy would lead to 67.8% improving within 48-72 h and 12.7% subsequently being hospitalized, compared with 48.6% and 13.7% for erythromycin/levofloxacin. For the UK, first-line success and hospitalization rates were, respectively, 71.7% and 8.1% for amoxicillin/erythromycin, and 65.3% and 9.3% for erythromycin/levofloxacin. The model estimated that antimicrobial resistance was responsible for >40% of hospitalizations in France and 15% in the UK. These data suggest that in areas with substantially reduced levels of susceptibility, antimicrobial resistance may be a significant contributor to subsequent hospitalization in adults initially treated as out-patients for CAP. Choice of out-patient treatment strategy should consider local resistance rates in order to maximize the likelihood of early cure, thereby minimizing hospitalizations.