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[预期寿命的延长——人口统计学带来了哪些希望?]

[Increasing life expectancy--what are the promises of demography?].

作者信息

Buttler G

机构信息

Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Lehrstuhl für Statistik und empirische Wirtschaftsforschung, 90403 Nürnberg, Germany.

出版信息

Z Gerontol Geriatr. 2003 Apr;36(2):90-4. doi: 10.1007/s00391-003-0135-8.

Abstract

The prospects for a longer life are improving, for life expectancy is growing continuously. In Germany new-born boys are looking forward to 74.4 years, girls even to 80.6 years of life. But Germany is only mid-range internationally. As there is a linear trend for 160 years, it seems realistic that life expectancy in top countries will be 100 years in 2060. If we look more thoroughly we find that there are important differences in Germany. Whereas the southern parts are in the pole position, the former East Germany is at the bottom of the league. This separation is apparently caused by the different political systems in postwar Germany. There are even more differences if smaller regions are examined. The reasons for these differences are due to many influences, including personal features, conditions of life, lifestyle and, of course, medical treatment. As these factors are partly determined by individual behavior, people are partly responsible for their life and therefore also for the further development of life expectancy.

摘要

长寿的前景正在改善,因为预期寿命在持续增长。在德国,新生男婴的预期寿命为74.4岁,女婴甚至达到80.6岁。但德国在国际上仅处于中等水平。由于160年来存在线性趋势,顶尖国家的预期寿命在2060年达到100岁似乎是现实的。如果我们更深入地观察,会发现德国存在重要差异。南部地区处于领先地位,而前东德则处于垫底位置。这种差异显然是由战后德国不同的政治体制造成的。如果考察更小的地区,差异会更多。这些差异的原因是多方面的影响,包括个人特征、生活条件、生活方式,当然还有医疗治疗。由于这些因素部分由个人行为决定,人们对自己的生活负有部分责任,因此也对预期寿命的进一步发展负有责任。

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