Häussler B, Hempel E, Reschke P
Institut für Gesundheits- und Sozialforschung, Berlin.
Gesundheitswesen. 1995 Jul;57(7):365-72.
Whereas some arguments can be advanced suggesting that the life expectancy in east Germany should have declined directly after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, other arguments suggest an increase. The aim of this study was to identify the actual developments and to explain the findings. Census data and mortality statistics from East and West Germany before unification were used to calculate standardized mortality ratios and life expectancies for various population groups. The differences in life expectancy between East and West were broken down according to age groups. The main finding was that the life expectancy of east German men declined in 1990 by 0.9 years, and only reached the 1989 level again in 1992. This was due solely to an increase in mortality for men under the age of 65. In 1990 and 1991, there were 3,400 more deaths among men under the age of 65 than would have been expected on the basis of the mortality rates of 1989. In contrast, the life expectancy of women hardly declined at all in 1990, and in 1992 it was already one year more than for 1989. The most important reasons for the increased numbers of deaths of men under the age of 45 were motor vehicle accidents, whereas ischaemic heart disease and cirrhosis of the liver were more significant for men between the ages of 45 and 65. Suicides did not increase after the fall of the Berlin Wall. It could be shown that the findings were not the results of artifacts.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
虽然有观点认为，东德的预期寿命在1989年柏林墙倒塌后应直接下降，但也有其他观点认为会上升。本研究的目的是确定实际发展情况并解释研究结果。利用统一前东德和西德的人口普查数据及死亡率统计数据，计算不同人群的标准化死亡率和预期寿命。根据年龄组对东德和西德预期寿命的差异进行了分解。主要发现是，1990年东德男性的预期寿命下降了0.9岁，直到1992年才再次达到1989年的水平。这完全是由于65岁以下男性死亡率上升所致。1990年和1991年，65岁以下男性的死亡人数比根据1989年死亡率预期的多3400人。相比之下，1990年女性的预期寿命几乎没有下降，1992年已经比1989年多了一岁。45岁以下男性死亡人数增加的最重要原因是机动车事故，而缺血性心脏病和肝硬化对45至65岁的男性更为重要。柏林墙倒塌后自杀率并未上升。可以证明，这些发现并非人为因素造成的结果。（摘要截选至250字）
