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2002年南极洲上空发生的史无前例的事件给我们带来了什么教训?

What is the lesson from the unprecedented event over Antarctica in 2002?

作者信息

Varotsos Costas

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2003;10(2):80-1. doi: 10.1007/BF02980093.

Abstract

Varotsos (2002a,b), suggested that both the smaller-sized ozone hole over Antarctica and its splitting in two holes in September 2002 occurred due to an unprecedented major sudden stratospheric warming caused by very strong planetary waves propagated in the southern hemisphere. Subsequently, a NASA press release of December 6, 2002, also reported the prevalence of very strong planetary waves in Antarctica. The aim of this Letter is to further discuss the morphology of the Antarctic ozone hole, to detect the causes that allowed the Antarctic stratosphere to exhibit this exceptional warming and to examine what it denotes about its mechanisms. Concerning the morphology, among the principal findings is that the ozone hole split occurred not only in the stratosphere but extended in the lower altitudes (upper troposphere). As to the causes of the major sudden stratospheric warming of 2002, a comparison with the previous warmings in Antarctica since 1964 is made. The smaller-sized Antarctic ozone hole of 2002 is approximately equal to that of 1988 when a strong sudden stratospheric warming occurred. If only the destruction of ozone by chlorofluorocarbons resulted in the delayed sudden stratospheric warmings in Antarctica, then the early sudden stratospheric warmings of 1988 and 2002 would not have occurred, since chlorofluorocarbon loading of the stratosphere has remained relatively stable in recent years. Furthermore, it appears that the El Nino characteristics in 1988 and 2002 are not similar.

摘要

瓦罗佐斯(2002a,b)提出,南极上空较小规模的臭氧空洞及其在2002年9月分裂成两个空洞,是由南半球传播的非常强烈的行星波引起的前所未有的平流层突然大幅升温所致。随后,美国国家航空航天局2002年12月6日的新闻稿也报道了南极存在非常强烈的行星波。本信函的目的是进一步讨论南极臭氧空洞的形态,找出导致南极平流层出现这种异常升温的原因,并研究其对相关机制的指示意义。关于形态,主要发现之一是臭氧空洞的分裂不仅发生在平流层,还延伸到了较低高度(对流层上部)。至于2002年平流层突然大幅升温的原因,将其与1964年以来南极此前的升温情况进行了比较。2002年规模较小的南极臭氧空洞与1988年出现强烈平流层突然升温时的臭氧空洞大致相当。如果仅是氯氟烃对臭氧的破坏导致了南极平流层突然升温的延迟,那么1988年和2002年的早期平流层突然升温就不会发生,因为近年来平流层中的氯氟烃含量一直相对稳定。此外,1988年和2002年的厄尔尼诺特征似乎并不相似。

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