Charpak Y, Bejanin F
EVAL (bureau d'études en évaluation médicale et santé publique, Paris, France.
Rev Epidemiol Sante Publique. 1992;40(6):454-9.
The aim of this study is to develop a computer simulation model to describe imaginary cohorts of heroin users in the Ile de France (greater Paris) region. Because of the lack of well-designed cohort studies in France, this model is based on epidemiological data found in various different studies. The results of the simulation reveal horrifying outcomes in ten years' time: in the more optimistic scenario (an annual non-Aids mortality rate of 1%, an annual rate of permanent addiction curtailment of 10% and a syringe exchange rate of 10%), only 50% of heroin users curtail their consumption permanently without being HIV carriers after 10 years, 16% are HIV carriers and 10% have died. In conclusion, medical care should play an important part in the management of drug users, and secondary prevention aimed at reducing the health problems involved in heroin use should be intensified.
本研究的目的是开发一个计算机模拟模型，以描述法兰西岛（大巴黎）地区海洛因使用者的虚拟队列。由于法国缺乏精心设计的队列研究，该模型基于在各种不同研究中发现的流行病学数据。模拟结果揭示了十年后的可怕结果：在较为乐观的情况下（艾滋病年死亡率为1%，永久性戒毒年率为10%，注射器交换率为10%），10年后只有50%的海洛因使用者永久性减少消费且未成为艾滋病毒携带者，16%为艾滋病毒携带者，10%已经死亡。总之，医疗护理应在吸毒者管理中发挥重要作用，并且应加强旨在减少海洛因使用所涉及健康问题的二级预防。
