[Estimate of the number of new patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Netherlands: at least 65,000 per year in the age group of 50 years and above].

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the incidence of type-2 diabetes mellitus in the Netherlands, using figures which were observed in a population-based cohort study of diabetes, the Hoorn Study.

DESIGN

Descriptive.

METHOD

Age-specific, gender-specific and glucose-status-specific diabetes incidence figures as observed in the Hoorn Study (1989-1998) were applied to the Dutch population structure of January 1, 2000.

RESULTS

Based on the fasting glucose diagnostic criteria, as recommended for clinical practice, 312,393 patients with incident type-2 diabetes were expected over 6.4 years in the 50-74 years age category, corresponding to an average of 48,811 patients per year. If data are extrapolated to the > or = 75 years age category, an additional 16,865 patients per year are expected (total: 65,676). If the 2-hour postload glucose values of the oral glucose tolerance test were also used to diagnose diabetes, these figures would be 66,001 new patients per year in the 50-74 years age group, and 22,840 in the > or = 75 years age group.