Liu In-mao
Department of Psychology, National Chung-Cheng University, Chia-Yi, Taiwan.
J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn. 2003 Jul;29(4):694-709. doi: 10.1037/0278-7393.29.4.694.
In solving conditional reasoning problems, reasoners are assumed to compute the probability of the conclusion, conditionalizing first on the categorical premise, giving the knowledge-based component, and conditionalizing then on the conditional-statement premise, from which the assumption-based component is derived. Because reasoners find it difficult to compute the second-step conditionalization except when the conditional-statement premise is found to be related to the result of the first-step conditionalization as for modus ponens or, possibly, for modus tollens, the knowledge-based component generally dominates reasoning performance. After representing all the possible cases in which conditional-argument forms may appear, this approach was found to be consistent with the results from the 3 experiments reported in this study, whereas 2 alternative hypotheses account for only some of the results.
在解决条件推理问题时，假定推理者会计算结论的概率，首先根据分类前提进行条件化，得出基于知识的部分，然后再根据条件陈述前提进行条件化，从中得出基于假设的部分。由于推理者发现很难进行第二步条件化，除非条件陈述前提与第一步条件化的结果相关，如肯定前件式或可能的否定后件式，所以基于知识的部分通常主导推理表现。在呈现了条件论证形式可能出现的所有可能情况后，发现这种方法与本研究报告的3个实验结果一致，而另外两个替代假设只解释了部分结果。
