Lorenzo Maria Nieves, Santos Miguel A, Pérez-Muñuzuri Vicente
Group of Nonlinear Physics, Faculty of Physics, University of Santiago de Compostela, E-15782 Santiago de Compostela, Spain.
Chaos. 2003 Sep;13(3):913-20. doi: 10.1063/1.1601791.
Spatiotemporal stochastic forcing of an ensemble system consisting of chaotic Lorenz cells diffusively coupled is analyzed. The nontrivial effects of time and length correlations on the ensemble mean error and spread are studied and the implications to new trends in weather forecast methodologies are discussed. A maximum for the forecast scores is observed to occur for specific values of time and length correlations. This maximum is studied in terms of an interplay between the natural scales occurring in the system and the noise parameters.
分析了由扩散耦合的混沌洛伦兹单元组成的集合系统的时空随机强迫。研究了时间和长度相关性对集合平均误差和离散度的重要影响，并讨论了其对天气预报方法新趋势的启示。观察到对于特定的时间和长度相关性值，预测分数会出现最大值。从系统中出现的自然尺度与噪声参数之间的相互作用角度研究了这个最大值。
