Canals M, Cattan P E
Departamento de Especialidades (División de Ciencias Médicas Oriente), Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Chile.
Rev Med Chil. 1992 Dec;120(12):1359-65.
Triatoma infestans is the principal vector for Chagas disease in Chile. Although there is enough epidemiological information about human infection, the effect of vector and host (animals and man) populations interrelations over Chagas disease prevalence has not been studied. This work studies a determinist mathematical model for the dynamics of Chagas disease transmission by Triatoma infestans, relating entomological population parameters with infection propagation. The effect of invasion of susceptible animal and human populations by infected triatomine insects and the stability of Chagas disease endemic was simulated. The Ro parameter was estimated. This is a gross appraiser of the infection reproductive rate that relates triatomine insect density, bite rate and mortality. The infected population at equilibrium was estimated. The resulting endemic was highly stable with a great amount of chronic and few acute cases. There is always an acute Chagas epidemic stage after a recent invasion. The need for a threshold triatomine insect population for the genesis of an endemic is proposed.
克氏锥蝽是智利恰加斯病的主要传播媒介。尽管已有足够的关于人类感染的流行病学信息，但尚未研究媒介与宿主（动物和人类）种群相互关系对恰加斯病患病率的影响。这项工作研究了一个关于克氏锥蝽传播恰加斯病动力学的确定性数学模型，将昆虫种群参数与感染传播联系起来。模拟了受感染的锥蝽昆虫对易感动物和人类种群的入侵影响以及恰加斯病地方病的稳定性。估计了R0参数。这是一个与锥蝽昆虫密度、叮咬率和死亡率相关的感染繁殖率的总体评估指标。估计了平衡状态下的感染人群。所产生的地方病高度稳定，慢性病例多而急性病例少。在最近一次入侵后总会有一个急性恰加斯病流行阶段。提出了地方病发生所需的锥蝽昆虫种群阈值。
