Probability of transmission of Chagas disease by Triatoma infestans (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) in an endemic area of Santiago del Estero, Argentina.

The daily probability (P) of transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi to a noninfected human host by an infected Triatoma infestans bug was estimated using field data from a 2-year longitudinal study carried out in a rural settlement of 20 households in Amamá, Santiago del Estero, Argentina. The following information was used for this purpose: the bug density and the proportion of infected bugs; the bug biting rate and the distribution of bites between humans and animals; the age-specific seropositivity to T. cruzi of the human population; and the actual number of new cases of human infection. The 2-year accumulated number of infective contacts per house estimated using a binomial model shows a statistically significant logistic correlation with the observed proportion of new cases per house. An average house where new cases of human infection were registered in the 2-year period had a P value of 0.0012, while an average general house (i.e., with and without new cases) had a P value of 0.0009. The observed range of P is discussed in terms of the chain of factors that affects the individual human risk of acquiring the infection and the possible entomological sampling errors.